NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER - NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow."--Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from se…
From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launch…
Alla gör vi förutsägelser, i stort och i smått. Om världshändelser, om vem som vinner val eller fotbollsmatcher, om samhällsekonomi och privatekonomi, om vad som kommer att ske på jobbet och så vidare. Vi är alla prognostiker, men de flesta av oss ä…
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about wh…
Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at…
All people wish to avoid nuclear war, but this fact provides little guidance for policy. One reason is a lack of understanding of how a nuclear war might come about or how one could be prevented; much of what is offered as expert knowledge cannot be…
It has been half a century since the publication of An American Dilemma, Gunnar Myrdal's seminal work on race in America. This book is an attempt to contribute to a fresh understanding of this dilemma by viewing the issues of race as they are now, n…
The fifteen original essays in ""Staging Philosophy"" make useful connections between the discipline of philosophy and the fields of theater and performance, using these insights to develop new theories about theater. Each of the contributors, leadi…
Jokainen hyötyisi tulevaisuuteen katsomisesta, jos osaisimme tehdä sen oikein. Osaisimme ostaa osakkeita, juonia politiikassa, lanseerata uusia tuotteita tai yksinkertaisesti suunnitella arjen elämää. Valitettavasti me ihmiset olemme todella huonoja…
In the last year the world has witnessed changes in East-West relations that would have been unthinkable only a short time ago. The Berlin Wall has crumbled, Eastern Europe has thrown out its authoritarian leaders, and the Soviet Union itself has un…
